In this activity, you will look at various plans for peace after the First World War and weigh the merits (advantages) of each according to diverse international interests. The simulation approach allows for deeper reflection on the human and material costs of “total war,” and helps you see firsthand how countries’ different wartime experiences played into the peace talks of 1919 that followed Germany’s surrender. Ultimately, this will lay the groundwork for considering how treaties, although written in the name of peace and prosperity, can contribute to future problems.

Causation, contextualization
During this simulation, you will practice causal reasoning as you explore the effects of the First World War from primary and secondary sources, and as you consider the implications of the actual peace process of 1919. You will also use historical empathy as you try to draft treaty terms from one country’s postwar point of view.

In this activity, you’re going to take part in a simulation that mimics the peace talks that occurred at the end of World War I.

Step 1—Simulation Prep

First, complete the information sheet about the costs of the First World War by country. Once you have completed this sheet, your teacher will assign you to one of the following country groups: Belgium, France, Germany, Great Britain, Japan, South Africa, and the United States. You will be taking on the role of one of the delegates for that country as you deliberate possible terms to include in the World War Peace Treaty.

Once you are in your group, take some time to compare the data you found on your assigned country, and analyze the social, political, and economic effects of those numbers on your country.

Step 2—Simulation

Your teacher will moderate this world summit, which is of utmost importance. Over the course of the simulation, the delegates (you!) will examine five different issues and determine which terms best address each issue. You will be given one issue at a time for deliberation as well as three possible terms to be included in the treaty regarding that issue.

Take out the World War I Terms worksheet and pick one student in your group to record notes. You are about to take part in five rounds of deciding the terms for each issue brought on by the war. At the end of the five rounds, you will have the terms for your peace treaty.

Your teacher will read the issues to you one by one, and once you’ve had a chance to discuss the terms with your group, you will have to make a choice as to which is best. Then, you’ll record your reasoning on your worksheet, and take turns posting your country’s choice on the front board with a brief explanation/defense of your reasoning.

After all the countries have posted, the winning choice (the term that appears the most) gets to stay up on the board, and the others get taken down. Do this for each of the five rounds, leaving the “winning” terms on the board after each round. What will emerge is a list of terms that sound a lot like the actual World War I peace treaty.

Step 3—Responses to the Treaty’s Terms

To wrap up the simulation, draft a brief statement (one or two paragraphs) from your assigned country’s perspective, in response to the Treaty’s terms. Then, your teacher will debrief you about the actual peace conference and the terms that came out of it. Are you surprised by any of the terms?

To wrap up, discuss the following questions with your class.

• The preparation worksheet you filled out included more nations than those included in the simulation. How might the end result have changed had these nations been included in the peace talks?
• What are the advantages of punishment versus reconciliation and how do you balance these two things during conflict resolution?
• How do you think Germany responded to the treaty?

World War I was devastating for both soldiers and civilians. While many people were excited about the war and fighting for their nation at the beginning of the conflict, the realities of war quickly changed these sentiments. People became disillusioned, not only with war but with everything they had once believed—reason, rationality, the benefits of capitalism and industrialization. As a result, the generation that came of age in the war was lost, both physically and mentally.

This article closes out the study of the First World War, but also sets the scene for the coming of the Second World War, hence contributing evidence to the Unit Problem: “What were the causes of global conflict from c. 1900 to the present”. The members of the Lost Generation questioned everything they had once believed— including liberal ideals and values. This disillusionment may have been an important contributing factor in the conflict to come.

Think about the following question as you read the article: Using evidence from this article, explain the causes and consequences of World War I. Write this question at the top of the Three Close Reads worksheet. You will be asked to respond to this question again after the third read in the Evaluating and Corroborating section of the worksheet.

Read 1—Skimming for Gist

Fill out the Skimming for Gist section of the Three Close Reads worksheet as you complete your first close read. As a reminder, this should be a quick process!

Read 2—Understanding Content

For this reading, you should be looking for unfamiliar vocabulary words, the major claim and key supporting details, and analysis and evidence. By the end of the second close read, you should be able to answer the following questions:

1. Why were people enthusiastic about the war when it first began?
2. How did nation-states and their rulers try to convince people, in particular young men, to join the war effort?
3. What is disillusionment and why did people begin feeling disillusioned by the war?
4. The author explains how these feelings of disillusionment weren’t confined to just soldiers’ thoughts about the war. Why did civilians also experience disillusionment?
5. What is the double meaning of the term the “Lost Generation”?
6. How was disillusionment represented in post-war art, literature, and philosophy?
7. How was disillusionment experienced in European colonies in Asia and Africa?
8. How did different regions of the world respond to the end of the “Great War”?

Read 3—Evaluating and Corroborating

At the end of the third close read, respond to the following questions:

1. Using evidence from this article, explain the causes and consequences of World War I.
2. This article argues that the experience of the war changed how many people understood the Enlightenment values and the idea of industrialization as progress. How would you explain these changes using the themes of cultural developments and interactions and social interactions and organization?

The daughter of an impoverished Jewish Polish family, Dr. Rosa Luxemburg (1871–1919) was one of the few people who opposed the rush to war in 1914. She was a socialist economist and philosopher who was imprisoned in Germany for her opposition to the war and then murdered in its aftermath for seeking to create a socialist republic.

In this unit we see the First World War not only as a result of great global trends, but also an experience shared by millions, if not always in precisely the same way. As we ask why people willingly went to war, or in fewer cases, refused to support their nation’s participation, it is important to explore the stories of some individuals. Luxemburg’s story is one such piece of evidence for you to consider.

Read 1: Observe

As you read this graphic biography for the first time, review the Read 1: Observe section of your Three Close Reads for Graphic Bios Tool. Be sure to record one question in the thought bubble on the top-right. You don’t need to write anything else down. However, if you’d like to record your observations, feel free to do so on scrap paper.

Read 2: Understand

On the tool, summarize the main idea of the comic and provide two pieces of evidence that helped you understand the creator’s main idea. You can do this only in writing or you can get creative with some art. Some of the evidence you find may come in the form of text (words). But other evidence will come in the form of art (images). You should read the text looking for unfamiliar vocabulary words, the main idea, and key supporting details. You should also spend some time looking at the images and the way in which the page is designed. By the end of the second close read, you should be able to answer the following questions:

1. Where was Dr. Rosa Luxemburg born, and what was her social position, at first?
2. What did Luxemburg achieve in her life?
3. How did Luxemburg feel about the war? What does the quote used in this biography tell us about her feelings?
4. How does the artist represent Luxemburg’s feelings about the war?
5. Look at the design of the of central panel. What shape does it make? Why do you think the artist chose that design?

Read 3: Connect

In this read, you should use the graphic biography as evidence to support, extend, or challenge claims made in this unit of the course. On the bottom of the tool, record what you learned about this person’s life and how it relates to what you’re learning.

1. To what extent does this article explain the causes and consequences of WWI?
2. How does this biography of Rosa Luxemburg support, extend, or challenge what you have learned about how people thought and felt about the First World War?
3. Compare and contrast Rosa Luxemburg’s opposition to the war to Helen Fairchild’s decision to volunteer. With whose decision are you more sympathetic? Why?

To Be Continued…

On the second page of the tool, your teacher might ask you to extend the graphic biography to a second page. This is where you can draw and write what you think might come next. Here, you can become a co-creator of this graphic biography!

In this final contextualization activity, you will use you contextualization skills to understand the historical context that led to a global economic depression. By investigating the context for the Great Depression, you will deepen your understanding of how both capitalism and globalization played a role in it. In addition, you’ll begin to see how interconnected our world was in the early twentieth century and how this interconnection could be both positive and negative. You will also analyze how these events still impact the world today and the lessons that can be learned from studying the origins and context of this historical event.

In this activity, you will use the event cards to complete the Contextualization Tool, which is included in the Contextualization – The Great Depression worksheet. Then, you’ll use the information from your completed tools and evidence from the article “Global Great Depression” to write a mini-essay that includes a contextualization paragraph and answers this prompt:

What was it about the economic and political situation of the early twentieth century that allowed for the global disaster that was the Great Depression?

First, read the following excerpt from Louis Adamic’s My America, published in 1938.

The Doorbell Rang: 1932

…At about a quarter to eight one cold morning in mid-January 1932, while we were at breakfast, the doorbell rang…I was confronted by two children: a girl, as we learned afterward, of ten and a boy of eight. Not very adequate for the season and weather, their clothing was patched but clean. They carried school books.

“Excuse me, Mister,” said the girl in a voice that sounded older than she looked, “but we have no eats in our house and my mother said I should take my brother before we go to school and ring a doorbell in some house”—she swallowed heavily and took a deep breath—”and ask you to give us something to eat.”

…

[Adamic invited the children inside and gave them some food. While they were eating, Adamic asked them a few questions about their situation.]

“We used to live on the fourth floor upstairs and we had three rooms and a kitchen and bath, now we have only one room downstairs, in back.” “Why did you move downstairs?” …

“My father … he lost his job when the panic came. That was two years ago, I was eight and Jimmie was six. My father he tried to get work, but he couldn’t, the Depression was so bad. But he called it the panic.” …

“Where is your father now?”

“We don’t know. He went away four months ago, right after Labor Day, and he never came back, so we had to move downstairs. The landlord didn’t want to throw us out, so he told my mother to move in downstairs.” …

I went to the school [the children attended] and learned from the girl’s teacher that, while such cases were not yet numerous in that neighborhood, they were increasing. Some children rang doorbells, others brought slips of paper from their mothers, asking teachers to please “get the school” to provide shoes for them; they were unable to do so themselves. The school had no funds for such emergencies; so some of the teachers bought shoes for these pupils out of their own pockets.

Source: Adamic, Louis. My America. New York: Harper & Brothers Publishers, 1938 (pp. 279–280).

Your teacher will either hand out or have you download the Contextualization – The Great Depression worksheet. Remember to follow all the worksheet’s directions. You should be a pro at completing the Contextualization Tool, so your teacher may have you complete the tool on your own. Start by writing the dates and location for the global Great Depression and then divide the event cards into broad and narrow context and place them on the funnel. Then, answer the remaining questions on the tool.

Finally, use your descriptions of broad and narrow context on the tool and information from the “Global Great Depression” article to individually write a three-paragraph mini-essay that answers this prompt:

What was it about the economic and political situation of the early twentieth century that allowed for the global disaster that was the Great Depression?

• Paragraph 1 should be an introduction to the essay that includes the broad context and your thesis statement (either at the start or the end of the paragraph).
• Paragraph 2 should focus on the narrow context and include evidence that explains why the economic and political conditions of the early twentieth century led to a global depression.
• Paragraph 3 should be the conclusion with an analysis of how understanding context improves the ability to interpret the Great Depression.

Your teacher will collect your completed worksheets and mini-essays to assess your understanding of this topic and your contextualization skills.

When the stock market crashed in 1929, few realized how far-reaching the collapse would be. The global economy built in the long nineteenth century made the world interdependent. When economies started to collapse, they took the rest of the world down with them. Many Western nations responded to the crash by closing off their economies and falling into isolationism. European empires looked to their colonies for resources, exploiting colonial subjects in an attempt to help lift Europe from financial ruin. All over the world, the Great Depression helped make the state more powerful. In some places, authoritarians came to power.

The Great Depression was one of the defining events in the run-up to the Second World War. This article is meant to provide you with evidence to respond to the Unit Problem, which focuses on causation, by introducing evidence about factors that contributed to the Second World War. It will also allow you to examine how dramatic transformations in economies can have serious consequences for societies around the world.

Think about the following question as you read the article: To what extent does this article explain how different governments responded to economic crisis after 1900? Write this question at the top of the Three Close Reads worksheet. You will be asked to respond to this question again after the third read in the Evaluating and Corroborating section of the worksheet.

Read 1—Skimming for Gist

Fill out the Skimming for Gist section of the Three Close Reads worksheet as you complete your first close read. As a reminder, this should be a quick process!

Read 2—Understanding Content

For this reading, you should be looking for unfamiliar vocabulary words, the major claim and key supporting details, and analysis and evidence. By the end of the second close read, you should be able to answer the following questions:

1. Why did the Great Depression spread from the United States to so many other parts of the world so quickly?
2. How did governments react to the crisis?
3. Why was the crisis so devastating for Latin America and for European colonies in Africa and Asia?
4. In what ways did some states grow more powerful during the crisis?
5. What ended the Great Depression?

Read 3—Evaluating and Corroborating

At the end of the third close read, respond to the following questions:

1. To what extent does this article explain how different governments responded to economic crisis after 1900?
2. Can you draw any comparison between more recent economic crises and the crisis in the 1930s?
3. The Great Depression was a collapse of international networks and global economic systems. What are some ways that these collapses reshaped social interactions and organization?

3x5 note cards or cut up paper

This sourcing collection, along with the Quick-Sourcing Tool, gives you an opportunity to practice a quicker kind of sourcing than you do in the sourcing practice progression. The tool and the process for using it—specifically designed for unpacking document collections—will help you be successful on both the SAQ and DBQ portions of the AP^® World History: Modern exam.

If you are unfamiliar with the Quick-Sourcing Tool or the process for using it, we recommend reviewing the Quick-Sourcing Introduction activity in Lesson 1.4.

The Quick-Sourcing Tool can be used any time you encounter a set of sources and are trying to respond to a prompt or question, as opposed to the deeper analysis you do when using the HAPPY tool that is part of the sourcing progression.

First, take out or download the sourcing collection and review the guiding question that appears on the first page. Then, take out or download the Quick-Sourcing Tool and review the directions. For Part 1, you’ll write a quick summary of each source in terms of how it relates to the guiding question (we recommend using one note card or scrap of paper for each source).

For Part 2, which uses the first four letters of the acronym from the HAPPY tool, you only have to respond to one of these four questions. This will get you a partial point on the AP^® World History: Modern exam. You should always include the historical significance or “why” (the “Y” in “HAPPY”) for any of the four questions you choose to respond to.

In Part 3, you’ll gather the evidence you found in each document and add it to your note cards so you can include it in a response later. Once each document is analyzed, look at your note cards and try to categorize the cards. There might be a group of documents that support the claim you want to make in your response, and another group that will help you consider counterclaims, for example.

To wrap up, try to respond to the guiding question.

This collection explores the changes in various economies as well as the global economy between the two world wars. These sources are largely visual images, such as posters and photographs, as well as some text sources. All concern the effects of these economic challenges and what governments did to meet them.

The AP^® World History: Modern CED suggests students develop their sourcing skills in line with certain topics. For Unit 7, one of these topics is “Economy in the Interwar Period”; therefore, we’ve compiled a number of primary source excerpts to help you develop these skills in relation to this content. This should help prepare you to be successful on the AP exam.

We recommend using the accompanying Quick Sourcing activity (above) to help you analyze these sources.

During the 1920s, politicians, scientists, veterans, activists, and every-day citizens sought to increase international connections with the goal of ending war and making the world a better place. The League of Nations, the Kellogg-Briand Pact, scientific conferences, trade unions, and Interpol were just some of the results of these attempts. This video overviews these changes, as well as the long history of internationalism before the twentieth century. But the internationalism of the 1920s quickly fell apart during the 1930s as the League of Nations failed to curb increasing nationalism and authoritarianism.

This video provides evidence at the global level to respond to the Unit Problem, which asks what the causes of conflict were, in a strange way. It introduces an attempt to avoid conflict, which ultimately failed. The failure of internationalism in the interwar years is important evidence for understanding the causes of the Second World War. The video will help you analyze how nations attempted to build networks and establish connections across borders. As you read, keep an eye out for the reasons that these attempts failed.

Think about the following question as you watch the video: While the focus of this video is on international cooperation, how does it help to explain the causes of global conflict? You will be asked to respond to this question again at the end of the video.

Preview—Skimming for Gist

As a reminder, open and skim the transcript, and read the questions before you watch the video.

Key Ideas—Understanding Content

Think about the following questions as you watch this video:

1. What was the Kellogg-Briand Pact?
2. What were some attempts at internationalism during the 1920s?
3. What are some examples of internationalism before the twentieth century?
4. Why did the League of Nations fail?
5. What does this video suggest is the legacy of the Kellogg-Briand Pact?

Evaluating and Corroborating

1. While the focus of this video is on international cooperation, how does it help to explain the causes of global conflict?
2. How does the failure of internationalism provide evidence to understand the causes of the Second World War?
3. Can you think of any current examples of internationalism succeeding or failing?

In this activity, you’ll begin to explore some of the characteristics that make up your identity, that define you and make you unique. This will allow you to see that you are a member of multiple communities and that people no longer have singular identities or communities, but rather multiple ones that are interconnected. This activity will challenge the idea of a single narrative that tells the story of your life or (on a larger or more global scale) that of history.

Contextualization, scale
You’ll assess your roles or identities in a variety of the communities of which you are a part. You’ll begin to contextualize your identities within different communities and your role in a broader or more global framework. In addition, you’ll engage in some scale switching as you view your identity on a local, regional, national, and then global scale.

In this activity, you’ll start with a discussion about identity and list the different identities you have (for example, at school, home, on sports teams). Then, you’ll draw representations of how these identities fit into different spatial scales using the Who Am I? worksheet. Finally, you’ll wrap up the activity with a discussion about similarities and differences that can be seen when comparing each of your drawings.

Colonialism had a lasting impact on people’s minds as well as their economic and physical well-being. In the last years of the long nineteenth century, networks of intellectuals across the colonized world began to share ideas about this impact. W.E.B. DuBois and Anna Julia Cooper in the United States, and Frantz Fanon in North Africa, were among the philosophers who participated in these international networks. Among their most important ideas was the concept of dual consciousness.

This article examines unresolved tensions in the early twentieth century including how people responded to colonialism, both in formal empires and in the continental United States. The concept of dual consciousness, which they developed, should provide you with a unique set of evidence to evaluate the effects of colonialism on social and cultural organization and interactions. You may also note how this concept is still relatable to the world in which we live today.

Think about the following question as you read the article: How does this article help to explain unresolved tensions in the early twentieth century and how some groups used internationalism to overcome oppression? Write this question at the top of the Three Close Reads worksheet. You will be asked to respond to this question again after the third read in the Evaluating and Corroborating section of the worksheet.

Read 1—Skimming for Gist

Fill out the Skimming for Gist section of the Three Close Reads worksheet as you complete your first close read. As a reminder, this should be a quick process!

Read 2—Understanding Content

For this reading, you should be looking for unfamiliar vocabulary words, the major claim and key supporting details, and analysis and evidence. By the end of the second close read, you should be able to answer the following questions:

1. What is W.E.B. DuBois’ concept of “double” or “dual consciousness”?
2. How did Booker T. Washington and W.E.B. DuBois differ in their approach to the problems of people of color in the United States?
3. What was Anna Julia Cooper’s particular contribution to this debate?
4. What was the first Pan-African Congress in 1900?
5. What did Frantz Fanon believe about the concepts of blackness and race?

Read 3—Evaluating and Corroborating

At the end of the third close read, respond to the following questions:

1. How does this article help to explain unresolved tensions in the early twentieth century and how some groups used internationalism to overcome oppression?
2. Can you use the concept of dual consciousness to help explain anything about our world today?

3x5 note cards or cut up paper

This sourcing collection, along with the Quick-Sourcing Tool, gives you an opportunity to practice a quicker kind of sourcing than you do in the sourcing practice progression. The tool and the process for using it—specifically designed for unpacking document collections—will help you be successful on both the SAQ and DBQ portions of the AP^® World History: Modern exam.

If you are unfamiliar with the Quick-Sourcing Tool or the process for using it, we recommend reviewing the Quick-Sourcing Introduction activity in Lesson 1.4.

The Quick-Sourcing Tool can be used any time you encounter a set of sources and are trying to respond to a prompt or question, as opposed to the deeper analysis you do when using the HAPPY tool that is part of the sourcing progression.

First, take out or download the sourcing collection and review the guiding question that appears on the first page. Then, take out or download the Quick-Sourcing Tool and review the directions. For Part 1, you’ll write a quick summary of each source in terms of how it relates to the guiding question (we recommend using one note card or scrap of paper for each source).

For Part 2, which uses the first four letters of the acronym from the HAPPY tool, you only have to respond to one of these four questions. This will get you a partial point on the AP^® World History: Modern exam. You should always include the historical significance or “why” (the “Y” in “HAPPY”) for any of the four questions you choose to respond to.

In Part 3, you’ll gather the evidence you found in each document and add it to your note cards so you can include it in a response later. Once each document is analyzed, look at your note cards and try to categorize the cards. There might be a group of documents that support the claim you want to make in your response, and another group that will help you consider counterclaims, for example.

To wrap up, try to respond to the guiding question.

This collection explores the political mood and actions following the Great War, which would unfortunately soon be known as the First World War, due to the lingering tensions among nations when the conflict concluded.

The AP^® World History: Modern CED suggests students develop their sourcing skills in line with certain topics. For Unit 7, one of these topics is “Unresolved Tensions After World War I”; therefore, we’ve compiled a number of primary source excerpts to help you develop these skills in relation to this content. This should help prepare you to be successful on the AP exam.

We recommend using the accompanying Quick Sourcing activity (above) to help you analyze these sources.

This video examines fascism’s defining characteristics. Fascism rose most prominently in Italy and Germany between the two world wars. Benito Mussolini rose to power as a fascist in the 1920s. His movement violently seized power and defined the Italian nation in racial terms. This example was soon followed by Adolf Hitler and the Nazi party, which seized power in Germany in the 1930s. Utilizing extreme forms of nationalism, these leaders pushed their citizens to expel or murder those deemed an enemy of the state. The video compares this pattern with the example of the KKK in the United States.

Fascist ideologies were important factors in the coming of the Second World War and in some of history’s greatest atrocities. This video is intended to provide you with another piece of evidence to respond to the Unit Problem, which asks, “What were the causes of global conflict from c. 1900 to the present?” It will help you to understand the causes of global conflict, especially the Second World War but also, possibly, current trends.

Think about the following question as you watch the video: To what extent does this video explain the causes and consequences of World War II? You will be asked to respond to this question again at the end of the video.

Preview—Skimming for Gist

As a reminder, open and skim the transcript, and read the questions before you watch the video.

Key Ideas—Understanding Content

Think about the following questions as you watch this video:

1. Where does the word “fascism” comes from?
2. The video argues that defining fascism as a form of political behavior is an important distinction. Why is this?
3. What are some of the methods that fascists use to gain power?
4. Why was internationalism a threat to the fascist agenda?
5. Why is total war the only kind of war for fascists?
6. How are authoritarianism and populism distinct from fascism, even if they share some characteristics, according to the video?

Evaluating and Corroborating

1. To what extent does this video explain the causes and consequences of World War II?
2. Why do you think the rise of fascism has historically caused conflict? What is it about fascism that makes it likely to create violence?
3. This video deals with some heavy topics. But one of its messages is that some of the problems presented by fascism in the twentieth century remain unresolved in the twenty-first century. Do you see any of those problems in current events? If so, where and how? If not, make a case that fascism is not an appropriate term to use to describe world events today.

You’ve learned a lot about communism and fascism at this point in the course, but the differences and similarities between the two ideologies can be confusing. In this quick activity, you’ll solidify your understanding of each ideology, which will help you evaluate modern communist states and recognize fascism in the world today.

In this activity, you’ll create a Venn diagram to show the similarities and differences between communism in theory, communism in practice, and fascism.

First, your teacher will assign you to one of three groups: communism, communism in theory, or fascism. Once you’re in your group, make a list of 5–10 main attributes of your assigned ideology. Once your group is done, get together with the other group that had the same assignment and combine your lists to come up with a final list of 5–10 attributes that you think are most descriptive of your assigned ideology.

Then, add your list to a whiteboard or a shared document so you can see what the other groups did, and they can see your work. Finish by creating your own Venn diagram, using the Communism vs Fascism worksheet, so that the similarities and differences are visually obvious.

In this activity, you are going to analyze a political party platform. This will help you learn how to deconstruct and closely examine the messages that politicians, advertisers, and other influencers use.

You are going to look at a political party platform and try to interpret what its statements really mean. First, take out the Political Party Platform worksheet and look at all the statements. You’ll probably notice that they are difficult to interpret; therefore, your first task is to rewrite the statements to in your own words. Don’t worry—you don’t have to do them all; you’ll work in groups and split up the task. Your teacher will tell you which statements your group should rewrite to make them easier to understand.

Once all groups have finished their rewrites, you’ll discuss them as a class. Then, your teacher will mix up your groups, and you’ll be assigned different statements. For each of those, you’ll write a justification for how and why each one might be seen as desirable for a country. Be prepared to share your ideas with the class.

Now, your teacher will tell you more about the political party that put forth this platform, and you’ll dig into how and why seemingly positive statements can morph into something less positive.

Your teacher will end this activity in one of two ways. Either you’ll think about how this political party might be seen as similar to some of those that exist in the world today, or, as a class, you’ll construct a large causal map, starting with the Treaty of Versailles. This will help you see how sometimes historical events unfold over a long period of time, and how hard it can be to predict the consequences of something that might not seem like such a big deal in the moment.