Introduction

Sticking to the goals we set for ourselves can be hard—ask anyone who’s set a New Year’s resolution. Chances are they didn’t reach their goal. If we consider that less than 10% of people who make resolutions achieve them, are we better off setting no goals at all?

Not necessarily. Goals help shape our actions, so there’s benefit in working toward a goal, even if we don’t hit the exact target. It’s like playing darts—even if you don’t hit the bullseye, you still get points for being on the board.

It’s important to set goals for addressing climate change. Climate change, also called global warming, is the long- term heating of the Earth due to human-made activities like the burning of fossil fuels. Fossil fuels are natural fuels that form over long periods of time like oil, gas and coal. Burning them creates greenhouse gases, which cause global warming.

Historically speaking, humanity hasn’t met many of its climate goals. In part, that’s because combatting climate change requires the world to work together, which is a big ask. Over time, though, as the issue of climate change gained attention, more scientists and leaders from around the world got involved. They realized we needed something to help shape the planning, execution, and evaluation of climate action, so they set some goals.

The Paris Agreement

In 2015, world leaders came together to form the Paris Agreement. This event was one of the most significant international treaties addressing climate change. As a part of these negotiations, policymakers set a goal to limit global temperature rise to 1.5°C, or about 2.7°F. The Paris Agreement was significant in part because 195 nations—nearly every country in the world—formally committed to the goal. The agreement united countries worldwide, which had previously had individual reduction targets and plans.

The 1.5°C goal was one of the most ambitious targets ever set. Small island nations like Kiribati and the Solomon Islands have long called for strong action against climate change. These countries face some of the most immediate and dramatic threats from rising sea levels. The Paris Agreement represented a victory for nations whose calls for serious action had been previously unanswered.

A little is a lot

Most people wouldn’t notice the difference between a few degrees, but, in climate terms, this change is significant. During the last ice age, the average temperature was just 6°C (21°F) lower than today. And during the time of the dinosaurs, the Earth was about 4°C (39°F) warmer than today. If that were the case now, you’d find palm trees in Antarctica.

To be clear, 1.5°C is not a magical number that will solve all our problems. Instead, it’s a goal scientists agree we should try to meet to avoid the worst effects of global warming.

Striving for 1.5°C

In 2018, an international panel of climate experts released a special report. The report outlined the impacts of a 1.5°C increase and what the world would need to do to limit warming to that level. Specifically, the report called for global greenhouse gas emissions to reach “net zero” by 2050. “Net zero” refers to reducing greenhouse gas emissions as much as possible. Those that can’t be avoided would be removed or offset.

The report was shocking because it detailed what would happen even if we could meet the 1.5°C target. The world would still experience climate-related famines, drought, and extreme weather. The speed at which we would need to make major changes was also shocking. Reaching net-zero emissions by 2050 would require a shift away from fossil fuels at an unprecedented rate. So unprecedented, in fact, that even in 2015, it seemed unlikely that we could achieve it.

Why set such an unattainable goal? One reason is that the report caused people to pay attention. It kicked off a wave of climate action at many levels that would have been unimaginable otherwise. Many of the major climate wins of the last few years are thanks in part to the 1.5°C goal. For example, the lower cost of renewable energy and batteries and legislation like the Inflation Reduction Act. This U.S. law provides money for clean energy investment.

What comes after 1.5°C?

As of 2023, the average global temperature had already risen about 1.1°C. Some scientists and policymakers believe that it’s still technically possible to reach the 1.5°C goal. However, many think that this is unlikely. That’s because while we have made significant progress since the Paris Agreement, emissions are still rising. And as long as we continue to use fossil fuels like coal for cheap energy, emissions are likely to continue to increase for many years.

But change matters when it comes to limiting the effect of rising temperatures. Extreme weather, for example, becomes even more extreme with every tiny increase in temperature. We may not reach the 1.5°C goal. But every bit of warming we can avoid limits additional suffering from the impacts of climate change.

The 1.5°C goal has unified and motivated climate action. But as achieving the 1.5°C goal becomes less and less likely, its usefulness is unclear. Some argue that reaching for a goal we cannot meet will only make people feel negative.

Is it time for countries and leaders to adopt a new plan, or should we hold tight to the last bit of hope for 1.5°C? The world looks different now than it did in 2015. Geopolitics, technology, and costs have changed significantly. A one-size-fits-all goal might not be effective. Around the world, countries are experiencing different impacts of climate change, may contribute to emissions more or less than other countries, and have different amounts of money to afford the switch to clean energy. At the more local level, communities have a huge range of needs and priorities. Looking ahead, what are the targets we need—both ambitious and realistic—to inspire action into the next decade?