Introduction

Sticking to a goal can be hard. Ask anyone who’s failed to keep a New Year’s resolution. If we consider that less than 10% of people who make resolutions keep them, are we better off not setting goals?

Not exactly. Goals help shape our actions, so there’s benefit in trying to meet a goal, even if we don’t hit the exact target. It’s like playing darts. Even if you don’t hit the bullseye, you still get points for being on the board.

To address climate change, the world needs to set goals. Climate change is the global heating of the Earth by human action. The main cause is our burning of fossil fuels. Fossil fuels are natural fuels that form over long periods of time. Fossil fuels include oil, gas and coal. Burning them creates greenhouse gases, which cause the Earth’s temperature to rise.

So far, the world hasn’t met many of its climate goals. That’s partly because we haven’t been working together. Over time, though, the issue of climate change has gained more of the world’s attention. World leaders realized we needed something to help address climate change, so they set some goals.

The Paris Agreement

In 2015, world leaders met in Paris to discuss climate change. At the end of the meeting, they agreed to a plan to fight climate change. For the first time, leaders agreed to limit global temperature rise to 1.5° Celsius (1.5°C), or about 2.7°F. The Paris Agreement was important in part because 195 nations agreed to the goal. That’s nearly every country in the world. It was also the most ambitious target ever set. The agreement brought countries together. Instead of individual targets and plans, there was now one goal.

For years, small island nations have called for strong action on climate change. Countries such as Kiribati and the Solomon Islands are low-lying islands. They face some of the most immediate threats from rising sea levels. The Paris Agreement was a win for those nations.

A little is a lot

In climate terms, a small change in temperature means a lot. During the last ice age, the average temperature was just 6°C (21°F) lower than today. And during the time of the dinosaurs, the Earth was about 4°C (39°F) warmer than today. If that were the case now, you’d find palm trees in Antarctica.

To be clear, 1.5°C will not solve all our problems. Instead, it’s a goal scientists agree we should try to meet. If we do, we can avoid the worst effects of global warming.

Striving for 1.5°C

In 2018, climate experts released a report. It outlined what the world would look like with a 1.5°C increase. It also detailed what we have to do to limit warming to 1.5°C. The main goal involves reaching “net zero” for global greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. “Net zero” means cutting greenhouse gas emissions as much as possible and then capturing or removing any emissions that can’t be cut.

Many people were shocked by the report’s recommendations. It said that even a 1.5°C increase won’t stop droughts or extreme weather. People would still go hungry. The report also said that the world needs to move fast. Reaching net-zero emissions by 2050 would require a shift away from fossil fuels. This change needs to happen so quickly that even in 2015, it seemed unlikely that we could achieve it.

The report caused people to pay attention. It kicked off an enormous wave of climate action at many levels. Many of the major climate victories of the last few years are related to the 1.5°C goal. It inspired the Inflation Reduction Act, for example. This U.S. law provides money for clean energy.

What comes after 1.5°C?

As of 2023, the average global temperature had already risen about 1.1°C. Some scientists think the 1.5°C goal is still technically possible. Many others think that it is unlikely. While we have made a lot of progress since the Paris Agreement, emissions are still rising. And as long as we continue to burn fossil fuels like coal, that will not change.

But even small changes matter when it comes to limiting climate change. Every tiny increase in temperature can make weather more extreme. That means more storms and more floods. We may not reach the 1.5°C goal. But every bit of warming we can avoid limits additional suffering due to climate change.

The 1.5°C goal has brought the world together. And it has motivated many countries to take climate action. But as reaching the 1.5°C goal becomes less and less likely, its usefulness is unclear.

Is it time for countries and leaders to adopt a new plan, or should we stick with 1.5°C? The world looks different now than it did in 2015. Global politics, technology, and costs have changed significantly. A one-size-fits-all goal might not be effective. Around the world, countries experience climate change differently. Some nations create more greenhouse gas emissions, and some countries have less money to move towards cleaner energy. Looking ahead, what are the targets we need to inspire action over the next 10 years?