Introduction

Sticking to the goals we set for ourselves can be hard. Ask anyone who’s failed to keep a New Year’s resolution. If we consider that less than 10% of people who make resolutions achieve them, are we better off setting no goals at all?

Not necessarily. Goals help shape our actions, so there’s benefit in working toward a goal, even if we don’t hit the exact target. It’s like playing darts—even if you don’t hit the bullseye, you still get points for being on the board.

It’s important to set goals for addressing climate change. Climate change, also called global warming, is the long- term heating of the Earth. It is caused by human-made activities like the burning of fossil fuels. Fossil fuels are natural fuels that form over long periods of time like oil, gas and coal. Burning them creates greenhouse gases, which cause global warming.

So far, the world hasn’t met many of its climate goals. That’s partly because combatting climate change requires every country to work together. Over time, though, the problem of climate change has gained more of the world’s attention. World leaders realized we needed something to help address climate change, so they set some goals.

The Paris Agreement

In 2015, world leaders met in Paris to discuss climate change. At the end of the meeting, they agreed to take the most significant steps ever to fight global warming. Leaders agreed to limit global temperature rise to 1.5° Celsius (1.5°C), or about 2.7°F. The Paris Agreement was significant in part because 195 nations committed to the goal. That’s nearly every country in the world. It was also the most ambitious target ever set. It created one unifying goal rather than many different individual reduction targets and plans by country.

For many years, small island nations have called for strong action on climate change. Countries such as Kiribati and the Solomon Islands are low-lying. They face some of the most immediate threats from rising sea levels. The Paris Agreement represented a win for those nations.

A little is a lot

Most people wouldn’t notice the difference between a few degrees, but, in climate terms, this change is significant. During the last ice age, the average temperature was just 6°C (21°F) lower than today. And during the time of the dinosaurs, the Earth was about 4°C (39°F) warmer than today. If that were the case now, you’d find palm trees in Antarctica.

To be clear, 1.5°C will not solve all our problems. Instead, it’s a goal scientists agree we should try to meet to avoid the worst effects of global warming.

Striving for 1.5°C

In 2018, an international panel of climate experts released a report. It outlined what the world would look like with a 1.5°C increase. It also detailed what the world would need to do to limit warming to that level. Specifically, the report called for global greenhouse gas emissions to reach “net zero” by 2050. “Net zero” refers to reducing greenhouse gas emissions as much as possible. Those that can’t be avoided would be removed or offset.

The report said that we would still experience famine, drought, and extreme weather at a 1.5°C increase. This shocked a lot of people, as did the speed changes would need to be made. Reaching net-zero emissions by 2050 would require a shift away from fossil fuels. This would need to happen faster than ever before. So fast, in fact, that even in 2015, it seemed unlikely that we could achieve it.

Why set such an unattainable goal? Well, the report caused people to pay attention. It kicked off a wave of climate action at many levels that would have been unimaginable otherwise. Many of the major climate victories of the last few years are thanks in part to the 1.5°C goal, like the lower cost of renewable energy and batteries and laws like the Inflation Reduction Act. This U.S. law provides money for clean energy.

What comes after 1.5°C?

As of 2023, the average global temperature had already risen about 1.1°C. Some scientists and lawmakers think the 1.5°C goal is still technically possible. Many others think that this is unlikely. While we have made significant progress since the Paris Agreement, emissions are still rising. And as long as we continue to use fossil fuels like coal, emissions are likely to continue to increase for many years.

But change matters when it comes to limiting the effect of rising temperatures. Extreme weather, for example, becomes even more extreme with every tiny increase in temperature. We may not reach the 1.5°C goal. But every bit of warming we can avoid limits additional suffering due to climate change.

The 1.5°C goal has unified and motivated climate action. But as achieving the 1.5°C goal becomes less and less likely, its usefulness is unclear.

Is it time for countries and leaders to adopt a new plan, or should we stick with 1.5°C? The world looks different now than it did in 2015. Geopolitics, technology, and costs have changed significantly. A one-size-fits-all goal might not be effective. Countries around the world are experiencing climate change differently. Some nations create more greenhouse gas emissions, and some countries have less money to move towards cleaner energy. At the more local level, communities have a huge range of needs. Looking ahead, what are the targets we need to inspire action over the next 10 years?