Much of what will happen in the future is unknown to us, especially the near future. What we do know is that in billions of years, the Universe will become simpler and will eventually go dark, ending the Big History story.

1.20:11-1.27:58. This video asks the question, “So… what is the next threshold?” and should get you thinking about the future of the Universe.

Preview

What is next for the Universe? Will life, as we know it, end? Or will there be more thresholds? The video reviews the eight thresholds and explores thoughts on the future.

Key Ideas—Factual

Think about the following questions as you watch the video:

1. What has to happen for an event to be considered a threshold in Big History?
2. What are some of the possibilities for the future suggested in the video?
3. What does the narrator mean when he says that on an astronomical scale (over billions of years) our fate is much clearer?

Thinking Conceptually

Do you think there is any way to prevent the Universe from eventually going dark?

Predictions about the future can be described in a variety of ways: Some predictions deal with the near future (the next 50 or 100 years) and others deal with the very distant future (millions or billions of years from now). Predictions can also differ by discipline. Predictions about what will happen in physics and astronomy, for example, can be very different from predictions made by historians about what will happen in the world.

This reading should help you understand what makes a good prediction, and how predictions about the near future differ from predictions about the remote future.

Skimming for Gist

Making predictions is something that historians generally don’t do, but Big History is not like other history courses. It’s important that you give some thought to what you’ve learned from the course and use that information to speculate about what the future holds. You’ve been asked to think about the claims made in this course, and have been encouraged to evaluate them in light of the four claims testers. Predictions about the future should be subjected to a similar, rigorous, scientific process, and should be built on the short- and long-term trends that they’ve learned about in this course. For example, a good prediction does not simply state that our world population will get bigger. Rather, a good prediction about population growth will provide evidence to support such a claim, referring to recent trends in birthrate, food, and diseases, for example.

Understanding Content

By the end of the second close read, you should be able to answer the following questions:

1. What are some of the long-term trends that David Christian identifies, and why does he claim that these are easier to predict than short-term trends?
2. What are some of the short-term trends that David Christian identifies, and why does he claim that these are harder to predict than long-term trends?
3. David Christian ends on a positive note about the future. Why?

Thinking Conceptually

Christian cites changes in population growth in support of his positive feelings about the future. Can you think of other changes in the behavior of humans that suggest we can solve some of our most pressing problems?

Bill Gates, like David Christian, sees signs for optimism about the future of humanity. The dramatic population growth of the twentieth century has begun to slow, which suggests that humans might be better able to provide the resources for our current population size. More important, though, this optimism springs from the power of collective learning and the power of humans to work collectively to address their biggest problems.

This video provides a nonhistorian’s perspective on the future, and encourages thinking about the countless people and disciplines that can positively influence our understanding of the Universe.

Preview

You probably hear many predictions each day, and you need to decide which you ought to care about and which ones you can trust. It’s probably not possible to ignore every prediction or accept every prediction. Considering the source of a prediction is a very important step in evaluating the value of a prediction. In the following video, Bill Gates, a technological innovator and philanthropist describes what he expects the future to look like.

Key Ideas—Factual

Think about the following questions as you watch the video:

1. What indicators does Bill Gates mention as indicators of the future?
2. What are some of Bill Gates’s questions about the future?
3. What are some of the harder questions Bill Gates has about the future?

Thinking Conceptually

Think about the following question: How does considering the perspective of a nonhistorian like of Bill Gates contribute to our interdisciplinary understanding of the Universe?

In the Big History Crash Course videos, we’ve covered the 13.8 billion years since the Universe came into existence. Increasing complexity has been the driving theme. While it’s important to look at the past, it’s also important to use that information to think about the future. The near future (as in thousands of years) is fairly tricky to anticipate. However, the end of humanity is a strong possibility. The far future, on the other hand, is easier to predict because we have solid scientific evidence that strongly suggests the eventual end of the Universe. Or, the end of the Universe as we know it—no planets, no stars, nothing. Can humanity change all of this? You never know.

Crash Course Big History Episode #10. In this video, John and Hank Green talk about what the future holds for us. You’ve spent the entire course learning about the past. As you know, understanding the past helps us understand today and the future. This video helps us think about what might be coming, the questions we might ask about what’s coming, and what we might do now to change the future.

Preview

The Crash Course videos up to this point have covered the 13.8 billion years since our Universe came into existence. Now, it’s time to be forward thinking and make some guesses about what the future holds. No doubt, some of the future will be good; but it also looks like some will be bad. Time to ponder the future of life, the Universe…everything.

Key Ideas—Factual

Think about the following questions as you watch the video:

1. What are the four futures that Hank Green talks about and what do each of them mean?
2. What are the two great revolutions that John Green proposes as part of making it through the twenty-first century if human complexity continues to rise?
3. What might the next 250,000 years bring?
4. What are some possibilities about what could happen to our planet in a few million years?
5. What do we anticipate happening in the next one billion years based on current knowledge?
6. What might happen in the next 3 to 5 billion years?
7. What does Hank Green predict will happen in the next 200 billion years?
8. And what is predicted to happen in the next 100 trillion years?
9. What evidence does John Green use for explaining that life can be considered eternal?

Thinking Conceptually

Do you think that John and Hank Green’s predictions for the future are fair? Are they based on good evidence? What is that evidence? Do they have different predictions?

Satyendra Nath Bose (1894-1974) was an Indian mathematician and physicist, most famous for his collaborations with Albert Einstein. Bose made contributions to two breakthroughs in quantum physics: Bose-Einstein statistics and Bose-Einstein condensate. Bose was nominated for the Nobel Prize four times, but he never won it. Bosons, fundamental particles of physics, were named after Bose. Seven scientists won Nobel prizes building on work pioneered by Bose.

In this unit, we look at how new understandings of the past or present influence visions of the future. This biography of Satyendra Nath Bose highlights the way our understanding of quantum physics has changed with the exploration and development of new ideas, giving us novel insights into the universe at the very small scale. These ideas were developed collectively, with contributions from across the world and in many different languages. Bose's story provides a perspective that will help you answer the Unit 10 driving question, "What is the next threshold?"

Read 1: Observe

As you read this graphic biography for the first time, review the Read 1: Observe section of your Three Close Reads for Graphic Bios Tool. Be sure to record one question in the thought bubble on the top-right. You don’t need to write anything else down. However, if you’d like to record your observations, feel free to do so on scrap paper.

Read 2: Understand

On the tool, summarize the main idea of the comic and provide two pieces of evidence that helped you understand the creator’s main idea. You can do this only in writing or you can get creative with some art. Some of the evidence you find may come in the form of text (words). But other evidence will come in the form of art (images). You should read the text looking for unfamiliar vocabulary words, the main idea, and key supporting details. You should also spend some time looking at the images and the way in which the page is designed. By the end of the second close read, you should be able to answer the following questions:

1. Why does the graphic bio assume you have not heard of Bose?
2. What were Bose's two main discoveries, and why were they significant?
3. What was Bose's primary way of communicating with other physicists?
4. What are some of the ways Bose's contributions to science are used today?
5. How does the illustration of this graphic biography show the relationship between Bose and Einstein?

Read 3: Connect

In this read, you should use the graphic biography as evidence to support, extend, or challenge claims made in this unit of the course. On the bottom of the tool, record what you learned about this person’s life and how it relates to what you’re learning.

1. How might the work of Satyendra Nath Bose influence what the next threshold might be?

To Be Continued…

On the second page of the tool, your teacher might ask you to extend the graphic biography to a second page. This is where you can draw and write what you think might come next. Here, you can become a co-creator of this graphic biography!

Jim Gates knew he wanted to be a scientist at a very early age. He took cues from an earlier scientist of great influence, Albert Einstein, not only on scientific method, but also on racial equality, never letting a segregated nation hold him back from the pursuit of his dreams. Gates graduated from MIT with Bachelor’s degrees in both mathematics and physics. He went on to become the world’s leading expert on supersymmetry, studying the fabric of the Universe in tiny, vibrating “strings” or “filaments,” which physicists believe exist at the smallest scales. Supersymmetry demonstrates that there was a point, far back in time, when every single force was united, before they split off and became distinct, determining the physical laws that govern the Universe.

This reading will help you gain an understanding of the life and accomplishments of one of the most influential American scientists, Sylvester James Gates, Jr.

Skimming for Gist

Sylvester James Gates, Jr., or Jim as he prefers, is an African American physicist who did not let the biases of society discourage him from pursuing what he loved—science. Gates overcame the constraints of a segregated nation to become one of the most decorated and accomplished scientists this country has ever seen.

Understanding Content

By the end of the second close read, you should be able to answer the following questions about Sylvester James Gates Jr.:

1. What key events in Gates’s life inspired him to become a physicist?
2. What role did the human and creative networks Gates had in his life play in the success of his career?
3. Gates grew up during a time of extreme prejudice against people because of the color of their skin. How did this affect him, and what does he think is the best way to fight racism?
4. Gates’s wife says, “He makes up stuff for a living.” What exactly does a physicist do?
5. What is Gates trying to discover with his theories, and how might they help us understand the Universe better?

Thinking Conceptually

“Science is a commitment to humanity…In the next century, millennium, or tens of thousands of years, if the environment becomes more hostile, only technology will prolong our survival as a species.” What is your reaction to this statement? Why do you feel that “science-denial” has become such a prevalent thought-base in today’s society?

This activity gives you an opportunity to return to the driving question now that you know more about how to make logical predictions.

Respond to the unit driving question, and then reflect on how your predictions have changed since the start of Unit 10.

This activity gets you to think about how to solve the problems that we may encounter in our future. It’s important not only to try to predict the challenges the Earth might face, but also to consider how we can either prevent those problems or discover ways to fix them if they’re inevitable.

Get into your Visions of the Future group—the one you were in at the end of Lesson 10.1. Since you did such a fantastic job using scientific evidence to predict problems that the Earth will face in the future, your job now is to come up with ways to solve the problems that you think are going to occur.

Each group will need to present two ideas to the class:

1. A way to prevent the problem from ever occurring.
2. If the problem does occur, ways to either resolve or substantially lessen the problem.

Be as creative as possible, but also be realistic. Using your scientific and historical knowledge and common sense, what can you come up with? You’ll have 5 to 10 minutes to present your ideas to the class. If you’re going to create a new technology, draw a simple model of this technology that explains the most important parts. If you develop an action plan, create a digital presentation that includes the steps of the plan.