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Project X – Making a Prediction Part 1

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STUDENT MATERIALSSTUDENT MATERIALSS-1PROJECT X – MAKING A PREDICTION PART 1WORLD HISTORY PROJECT 1200 / LESSON 4.0Preparation•Access “Share of the Population Living in Extreme Poverty” PurposeThis activity is the first of two designed to guide you through the steps of making predictions with data. The following process will help you learn to identify the shapes of graphs and give you some practice with predictions. Evaluating these sample predictions will provide you with models for coming up with your own in the next Making a Prediction activity. The ability to evaluate data is an important skill—for history class and in life—because it enables us to use and apply the information we encounter in our world every day. ProcessIn this three-step activity, you will begin by examining a simple line graph and completing a matching activity. Next, you will evaluate several example predictions about the future of poverty and identify the different components of a prediction.Step 1There are two main practices that can help you make predictions using charts. First, you can examine the scale and shape of the chart itself to make predictions about how the shape will change if you extend the scale. Second, you need historical information about the chart’s topic. This information—gained from research besides the chart—will help you predict how the trends on the chart might change or stay the same. Begin by looking over the Making a Prediction Part 1 worksheet. Look at the “How Funny YouTube Videos Are” chart. Based on the chart, as well as your own experience, predict what the line would look like if the timeline were extended to 8:00 a.m. Draw the extended graph. Be prepared to explain why your prediction is correct.Step 2Your teacher will place you into small groups to work on Step 2 of the Making a Prediction Part 1 worksheet. With your group, match the graph shapes with the given descriptions. (Note: Some descriptions match more than one chart.) Be prepared to share your responses with the class. Step 3Remain in your group to complete Step 3 of the Making a Prediction Part 1 worksheet, which shows a line graph as well as several predictions based on it. With your group, evaluate the given predictions about the future of poverty. Identify and cross out any predictions you think are very unlikely to occur. Discuss and vote on which of the remaining predictions you think is most likely to take place. Next, work with your group to complete the three discussion questions and your explanations. Unless otherwise noted, this work is licensed under CC BY 4.0.
Name:Date:Name:Date:STUDENT MATERIALSS-2PROJECT X – MAKING A PREDICTION PART 1WORLD HISTORY PROJECT 1200 / LESSON 4.0Step 1Directions: Based on the graph below, as well as your own experience, predict what the line would look like if the timeline were extended to 8:00 a.m. Redraw the line on the graph that extends to 8:00 a.m. Be prepared to explain why you think your prediction is correct.In the box below, predict what the line would look like if the timeline were extended to 8:00 a.m. Redraw the line on the graph that extends to 8:00 a.m. How do you know this prediction is correct?
Name:Date:Name:Date:STUDENT MATERIALSS-3PROJECT X – MAKING A PREDICTION PART 1WORLD HISTORY PROJECT 1200 / LESSON 4.0Step 2Directions: Choose the graph that best describes each example below. Assume that the x-axis represents change over time. Explain your reasoning. Note that descriptions can match more than one chart.
Name:Date:Name:Date:STUDENT MATERIALSS-4PROJECT X – MAKING A PREDICTION PART 1WORLD HISTORY PROJECT 1200 / LESSON 4.01.The height of a person.2.The height of a baseball thrown in the air. .3.The value of a stock in the stock market.4.The population of people in the world..5.Your desire to learn about charts.
Name:Date:Name:Date:STUDENT MATERIALSS-5PROJECT X – MAKING A PREDICTION PART 1WORLD HISTORY PROJECT 1200 / LESSON 4.06.The amount of energy you have throughout the day.7.The amount of pain you feel after an injury.8.The amount of money you earn over time working a steady job, with no raise.9.The amount of carbon emissions in the United States between 1900 and 2000.
Name:Date:Name:Date:STUDENT MATERIALSS-6PROJECT X – MAKING A PREDICTION PART 1WORLD HISTORY PROJECT 1200 / LESSON 4.0Step 3Directions: Review the graph below and then answer the question that follows.Interactive chart: https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/share-of-the-population-living-in-extreme-poverty?tab=chart&country=~OWID_WRL CC BY 4.0
Name:Date:Name:Date:STUDENT MATERIALSS-7PROJECT X – MAKING A PREDICTION PART 1WORLD HISTORY PROJECT 1200 / LESSON 4.0The following are some predictions about the future of poverty. Identify the ones that you think seem possible. Discuss with your group what evidence or knowledge brings you to this decision. Identify any predictions that you think are unlikely and what evidence brings you to this decision. Then choose the one that you think is most likely. Be ready to discuss this with the class.1.Poverty will continue the trend on this chart, dropping gradually until it hits 0 percent in the year 2120.2.Poverty will drop sharply in 2070 when the discovery of an infinitely renewable energy source eliminates resource scarcity.3.Poverty will begin to rise rapidly again in 2045 as climate change causes widespread famine and drought.4.Poverty will level off at 5 percent by 2045 as more and more of the world gains access to education and health benefits, regardless of race and country of origin.5.Poverty will stay around 10 percent forever, as there is nothing more that can be done to reduce poverty levels.6.Global racial, economic, and national equality will make poverty obsolete by 2120.7.By 2070, repeated economic recessions will increase inequality, causing poverty to rise rapidly to 40 percent.Which prediction did your group decide is most likely to take place? As a group, write a few sentences that explain your reasoning. Think about: Is the prediction specific? Is the prediction general?Which predictions did your group decide are very unlikely to take place? As a group, write a few sentences that explain your reasoning.Think about: What makes the prediction very unlikely? Is it the time frame? Is it the type of language being used? Is it something else?What do you think makes a “good” prediction? Think about: What should be included in a prediction? Should the prediction reference a date? How about a reason for the change? Is it important to describe the rate of change? What about the actual prediction? Does it reference a percentage change or an actual number?